Chinese Solar Module Exports Declined 12 Percent MoM In November 2024
Source：taiyangnews
Chinese solar module exports have been on a downward spiral in 2024 as demand slows down, according to InfoLink Consulting. (Photo Credit: InfoLink Consulting)
Key Takeaways
- Chinese solar module exports in November 2024 totaled 15.2 GW, a 14% YoY decline
- The largest destinations were the 5 individual markets of Brazil, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Spain
- Off-season in Europe, India’s focus on domestic manufacturing and Brazil’s duty-free import quotas limited the demand, according to InfoLink Consulting analysts
The global export volume of Chinese solar PV modules in November 2024 at 15.2 GW represents a 12% month-on-month (MoM) and a 14% year-on-year (YoY) decrease, according to InfoLink Consulting, which blames the drop largely on off-season in Europe, India’s strengthening of local production capacity, and Brazil’s duty-free import quotas to be exhausted. During 11 2024, China exports around 219.31 GW of modules globally, compared to 191.81 GW in 11M 2023.
Brazil, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Spain together imported close to 41% of the global market for Chinese solar modules during the reporting month.
The largest market for Chinese solar modules in November 2024 was Asia Pacific that collectively took in close to 5.1 GW capacity, compared to 4.34 GW in October 2024, and 8.1 GW in November 2023. During the initial 11 months last year, it took in around 63.55 GW of these modules.
Pakistan was the largest destination for Chinese modules in the region with around 1.12 GW capacity going here, a 334% MoM increase and 15.97 GW in 11M 2024, according to InfoLink. In December 2024, the country is likely to import another 1 GW, as per the analysts; however, the expected change in its grid connected net metering electricity price policy may affect demand for distributed projects.
India, on the other hand, powers ahead with its focus on local PV manufacturing. It imported about 550 MW of modules in November, down 35% MoM, and 15.5 GW between January and November 2024. However, during 11M 2024 India imported about 26.31 GW of Chinese solar cells. Going forward, the share of Chinese solar module exports to the Indian market will likely decrease as the government promotes the use of modules from the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) comprising only Indian manufacturers.
Europe imported only 4.1 GW of solar modules from China in November 2024, representing a 41% MoM and a 16% YoY decline. It contributed around 88.78 GW during 11M 2024, an 8% drop from 11M 2023 (see China Shipped 17.7 GW Solar Panels In Nov. 2023).
InfoLink analysts attribute Europe’s off-season for the decline along with continued presence of module inventories here. Most shipments went to the Netherlands, Spain, Slovenia, Portugal, and Greece in the region. For the month of December 2024, they forecast the European market to import around 5 GW or less, taking the annual total for the region to about 91 GW to 94 GW. In 2023, Europe imported 101.48 GW of Chinese solar modules.
Chinese module supplies to the Americas during 11M 2024 totaled 30.12 GW, including 3.2 GW shipped in November 2024. Brazil was the largest procurer, taking in close to 1.98 GW. The duty-free import quota as implemented by the government to end by 2024-end will lead to solar module exports being levied a 25% tariff which may negatively impact demand this year.
The Middle East region imported 1.7 GW of solar modules during the reporting month, representing a 24% MoM decline and a 47% YoY increase. There was an overall increase of 107% in shipments during the initial 11 months of the year with 26.82 GW, according to InfoLink. Saudi Arabia was the largest destination with around 950 MW in November 2024, and 15.35 GW in 11M 2024.
It was South Africa that drove Chinese module imports to Africa in November, taking in 270 MW out of 1.12 GW and 3.53 GW out of 10.05 GW in 11M 2024.
Overall, InfoLink analysts forecast the year 2024 to end with about 230 GW to 235 GW of Chinese solar module exports globally, compared with 208 GW in 2023, representing an annual growth rate of about 10% to 13%.
The market intelligence agency has also adjusted its global demand estimate for 2024 to 491 GW to 537 GW, down from its previous forecast of 469 GW to 533 GW.